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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: April 12th, 2024

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  • Call me a pessimist, but I doubt that the US will pull out of NATO. NATO grants them immense strategic leverage, and the ability to define the borders of its empire by placing troops in key countries. The ability to rapidly engage in conflicts and project its power. I highly doubt that the US will ever pull out - even if the angry orange shit stained child decides to. It would be a nail in the coffin, and the Pentagon knows it.

    The orange shitstain has instituted quite some purges in the administration, but also in the military top brass. And his regime are drinking their own Kool-Aid. The Pentagon went along with drunken Pete’s unhinged “Deus vult” style crusade rhetoric before the start of this war. I think there is legitimate hope that they will do the World the favour of ridding it of a good part of their power projecting ability.

    Your second point, of the US turning back to normal… I doubt it. You have 77M people who voted for this.

    Here I have to agree. The Trump regime is just a symptom, and from the political establishment, even from the opposing party, there is little to no tangible push back. The orange shitstain going away won’t magically repair the underlying problems, as you said, ridding Germany of the most outrageous excesses of fascism took a total defeat followed by years of occupation and careful state crafting. And even there, a lot of the fascist shit survived under a thin veneer of democracy, (or, in East Germany, “democracy”) and is currently coming back, because the political caste is forgetting the lessons learned from history, and once more believe they can control and use the fascists as a tool for their own benefit.




  • The problem is the size, and the resulting vulnerability of the deterrent.

    Both the French and the British strategic retaliatory capability consist of a fleet of 4 missile carrying submarines each. Because that’s how things work, of those fleets, at best two submarines can be out at sea at once, with the others undergoing scheduled maintenance and/or training. That might be reliable against an adversary with limited naval capabilities that is located sufficiently far away. But with an adversary that has the largest navy of the world, that deterrent, whose survivability depends solely on staying undetected, suddenly becomes very vulnerable. (Apart from having a large navy, the US operate a global hydrophone network for submarine detection) Additionally, the range of submarine launched missiles is somewhat limited due to size constraints, so they cannot be easily aimed at every possible adversary at once, leaving the submarine vulnerable to detection and destruction when transiting to a suitable launch area.

    Also a purely (or largely) strategic deterrent lacks a credible escalation path from conventional war to one all-out strategic nuclear countervalue strike. Especially a submarine based deterrent, because if a missile submarine fires only a single missile, it risks detection, and therefore potential destruction, before it will be able to launch again, so it’s more an all or nothing approach. Which nuclear superpower is going to believe you that you’ll risk your entire anihilation as a response to a small scale conventional attack on a minor ally?


  • With the urgency of the problem, I think we should take as much advantage as possible of any already existing structures, and use them as a starting point for something new and hopefully better

    Something like NATO minus USA makes sense. Maybe the demented orange shit stain does us the favour of leaving NATO, which saves the effort of giving the thing a new name and legal framework.

    But a purely military alliance based on geostrategic interests alone, like NATO, doesn’t cut it. The EU needs a serious own capability of defending itself, as well, as there is strong political, economical and ideological alignment and co-dependence within the EU. I’d strongly argue for it being a separate arrangement from whatever needs to replace NATO, because geostrategic interests can shift easily. (see USA)

    Therefore, the EU as a whole needs to step up its defence cooperation and capabilities, both to deter any land grabs by any megalomaniac imperialist dictator, East or West, and to benefit from the economy of scale. As long as every European country is cooking its own soup defence wise, equipment will be (and stay) outrageously expensive, as it is only produced in limited numbers. This will require a unified EU defence policy, and ultimately should lead to a common military. I wouldn’t centralise it too much, though, as this adds a single point of failure. Maybe transitioning via turning the existing national militaries into the EU military’s regional commands could work. Likewise, even equipment produced under unified standards shouldn’t be made all in one place, but needs to be spread out somewhat across the EU, as a single factory is way too easy to put out of production. Also, this way, it’s possible that every member state gets to benefit economically from the defence industry.

    For nuclear doctrine, firstly, there needs to be sufficient capability. Unfortunately that means enlarging the nuclear arsenal. Currently, the EU’s only nuclear deterrent is the French nuclear arsenal, which was designed to have the ability to deliver a retaliatory strike powerful enough to make a single nuclear superpower think twice before attacking France itself, because they risk losing all their major cities over it. Now there unfortunately are three nuclear superpowers with potentially hostile intents towards the EU. In the remainder of NATO, there is another nuclear arsenal, that of the UK, which was designed around the same idea as the French one, and is sized similarly, but unfortunately, relies on US made delivery systems with shared maintenance arrangements, (Trident rather than domestically produced SLBMs) so it useless in the long term as a deterrent against an increasingly hostile USA, because they can render the missiles inoperable by ceasing delivery of spare parts. The British warheads also were developed in close cooperation with the US, so there might be a possibility of some spare parts also relying on US supply chains.










  • It’s too late to just make plans without taking decisive action. What’s needed now, is immediate action, even if unplanned or with very little planning. Better take necessary action without a plan than sitting around planning for something that won’t match the facts being created right now. Thanks to many European politicians being transatlanticist bootlickers, that, unfortunately, is exactly what is happening. There still is a widespread naive notion of the Trump regime just going away after the next election, and everything returning to “normal” transatlantic bootlickery, if you sit it out long enough. Meanwhile the Trump regime is instituting purges in its entire administration, and changes election law in order to ensure they win the next election. Even if that fails, we are still dealing with a country where you face exactly zero repercussions for attempting to extend your term in office via a coup, and the regime surely has learned its lesson from last time.