What events do you think are likely to happen this calendar year? What percent odds would you put on such events happening?
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- AI bubble pops as investors begin to realize that nobody is willing to pay for this stuff that they’re sinking their money into.
- China invades Taiwan. It’s brutal and bloody. The US destroys TSMC and other key technologically significany global infrastructure.
- As a result, the global economy again collapses as the bottom drops out of the stock market and multiple high profile companies go bankrupt. Executives get golden parachute on the way out.
- Venezuela is going to turn ugly as a power struggle ramps up among rival entities.
- The US will invade Columbia and Panama, but not Greenland.
- Ukraine will continue fighting against Russia, the stalemate will continue.
- Interest rates are going to be ramped up too fast in a effort to juice the economy before the midterm elections. Only to make inflation worse. We will continue to see prices increase.
- Trump and the Republicans are going to hype up another racist fear tactic as red meat for their base.
- Trump’s mental and physical health problems get worse, his deterioration is very obvious but nobody will say or do anything about it.
- ICEs violence will increase, as will anger of protestors. We will see riots and mass unrest.
- The Republicans lose the midterm in a landslide, Trump whines about it on truth social, calling it rigged.
- Wildfires in the west, hurricanes in the east.
- The internet gets even more dead and useless as more and more AI slop fills up every nook and cranny of all mainstream sites. Subculture sites and the Fediverse remain mostly fine.
- Trump resigns after careful consideration
- Elon decides to fly on a SpaceX flight, it doesn’t go well
- We find a cure for cilantro tasting like soap for some people
- RAM prices drop lower than ever
It’s gonna get way worse to be in the US
All temperature records are broken again.
Weather is even more extreme than the past few years.
More wild fires, longer droughts, more intense hurricanes, tornados, typhoons and flooding. All once-in-a decade/generation/100 years events happen again.
- Market crash around March or April - 50%
- Drought and tons of wildfires in the western US starting around June - 90%
- Phil Collins RIP - 🤷♂️%
- AI bubble doesn’t dramatically pop in the way people might be expecting, but much of the tech industry will become more and more of a disaster over time. Especially the job market. But they’ll keep insisting everything is normal and this isn’t a pop.
- Linux marketshare rises a full percentage point.
- A major assassination of a billionaire or politician. A much bigger incident than Brian Thompson or Charlie Kirk. With how much more venomous the political climate keeps becoming, I expect violence to escalate into something this severe.
- No consequences whatsoever for Donald Trump. Given his health there’s a small possibility he just dies though, but that’s the only possible way he ever leaves office.
- Frieren season 2 will be peak, and it’ll be the one little bit of joy to keep me going just a little longer.






