Not my post, copying from another reddit u/Governmentgoblin:

Points suggesting Kpler’s 24 million bpd Middle East export figure for the week to 18 October 2026 is overstated or unreliable.

https://www.theoilreport.pro/

• Kpler’s own month-to-date average for October is only 17.3 million bpd, according to Reuters citing Kpler data and almost exactly matching the lower independent estimates and far below the 24 million headline.

• Rival tracker Vortexa put the same week at roughly 18 million pd, not 24.6 million. Firm-to-firm gaps this large undercut consumer confidence especially around the significance of determining where the market is headed using the peak numbers.

https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/

• Independent OSINT and satellite trackers (LVision, hormuzstraittracker) show Hormuz-related crude flows in the 8-11 million bpd range for recent weeks, not even remotely close to the higher volumes needed to support 24 million once all bypasses are added.

• Visible ship traffic through Hormuz is still only about 6-7 vessels a day versus a pre-war baseline of roughly 85. Even allowing for dark ships and ship-to-ship transfers, this scale of AIS silence makes sustained high volumes hard to verify.

• Refined product exports remain well below half of prewar levels. Crude may have recovered more via pipelines and STS, but the overall liquids total cannot reach or exceed pre-war levels if products are still severely constrained.

https://gcaptain.com/middle-east-oil-flows-near-prewar-levels-defy-hormuz-attacks/

• Saudi East-West pipeline throughput and Yanbu loadings are recovering but still limited (roughly 2-3 million bpd range after the mid-September attacks). Kpler cites 6-7 million bpd. Terminal capacity and local Red Sea use further cap net exports.

https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/dont-mistake-mideast-oil-rebound- normality-2026-10-22/

• Kpler’s recent weekly numbers are explicitly “preliminary confirmed floors” using data estimates that are often revise later. A single volatile convoy/STS week can produce a temporary spike that does not represent sustainable supply.

• Regional production available for export is constrained by local consumption, Iranian volumes blocked by the U.S. naval presence, and incomplete bypass infrastructure. Sustained exports above pre-war levels are difficult to reconcile with these limits and with low observed loading activity.

These discrepancies mean the widely reported “back to or above pre-war” narrative rests on one peak weekly figure from one data provider. Broader monthly averages, rival trackers, satellite/OSINT data, and physical constraints all point to exports remaining materially lower and consistent with an ongoing supply squeeze rather than pointing to a true full recovery.

https://x.com/LVision_Trading

https://www.ft.com/content/509c0ecf-625e-4473-96cf- e249edb7c86e

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For the uninitiated, Kpler was the Firm ran by Iranian monarchists. There were doubts about the supposed volume they were reporting, and I thought others might be interested in reading.