This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
Not my post, copying from another reddit u/Governmentgoblin:
Points suggesting Kpler’s 24 million bpd Middle East export figure for the week to 18 October 2026 is overstated or unreliable.
• Kpler’s own month-to-date average for October is only 17.3 million bpd, according to Reuters citing Kpler data and almost exactly matching the lower independent estimates and far below the 24 million headline.
• Rival tracker Vortexa put the same week at roughly 18 million pd, not 24.6 million. Firm-to-firm gaps this large undercut consumer confidence especially around the significance of determining where the market is headed using the peak numbers.
https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/
• Independent OSINT and satellite trackers (LVision, hormuzstraittracker) show Hormuz-related crude flows in the 8-11 million bpd range for recent weeks, not even remotely close to the higher volumes needed to support 24 million once all bypasses are added.
• Visible ship traffic through Hormuz is still only about 6-7 vessels a day versus a pre-war baseline of roughly 85. Even allowing for dark ships and ship-to-ship transfers, this scale of AIS silence makes sustained high volumes hard to verify.
• Refined product exports remain well below half of prewar levels. Crude may have recovered more via pipelines and STS, but the overall liquids total cannot reach or exceed pre-war levels if products are still severely constrained.
https://gcaptain.com/middle-east-oil-flows-near-prewar-levels-defy-hormuz-attacks/
• Saudi East-West pipeline throughput and Yanbu loadings are recovering but still limited (roughly 2-3 million bpd range after the mid-September attacks). Kpler cites 6-7 million bpd. Terminal capacity and local Red Sea use further cap net exports.
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/dont-mistake-mideast-oil-rebound- normality-2026-10-22/
• Kpler’s recent weekly numbers are explicitly “preliminary confirmed floors” using data estimates that are often revise later. A single volatile convoy/STS week can produce a temporary spike that does not represent sustainable supply.
• Regional production available for export is constrained by local consumption, Iranian volumes blocked by the U.S. naval presence, and incomplete bypass infrastructure. Sustained exports above pre-war levels are difficult to reconcile with these limits and with low observed loading activity.
These discrepancies mean the widely reported “back to or above pre-war” narrative rests on one peak weekly figure from one data provider. Broader monthly averages, rival trackers, satellite/OSINT data, and physical constraints all point to exports remaining materially lower and consistent with an ongoing supply squeeze rather than pointing to a true full recovery.
https://www.ft.com/content/509c0ecf-625e-4473-96cf- e249edb7c86e
For the uninitiated, Kpler was the Firm ran by Iranian monarchists. There were doubts about the supposed volume they were reporting, and I thought others might be interested in reading.
The “back to pre-war levels” headlines were a hilarious cope. The level of delusion we are seeing from western media is truly staggering. I just wish I was able to publicize the actual information to a mass audience in the West. Unfortunately I don’t have the means to do so, and most media programs by socialists here in the core seem unequiped to do it.
I basically have to just remember details and use them in conversation when I’m able to.
I guess this is the downside of being uninterested in most social media.
🇸🇦🇮🇷| A Saudi delegation has arrived at Tehran for talks with Iranian officials.
The talks likely include a selection of topics including the KSA-Yemen war and upcoming US/Israeli war.
@FotrosResistancee
🇸🇦⚔️🇾🇪 Weapons under bags of wheat and flour: The Saudi-backed PLC’s effort to smuggle weapons to its besieged militants in Taiz.
Under an Ansarullah government gesture, humanitarian supplies are allowed into Taiz.
@SimurghRes
"This is not Gaza. This is Hebron today.
The Israeli occupation has begun destroying Palestine’s economic capital, a city that accounts for 75% of the country’s production in the stone and marble, leather and footwear, plastics, glass, oils, dairy, and gold industries.
Ethnic cleansing is being inflicted on the Palestinian people everywhere across the land of Palestine."
🇵🇸 Ben-Gvir throws Palestinian prisoners into solitary over a cake
Palestinian prisoners spent days saving bread and jam from their meagre rations to make a cake, planning to celebrate if Israeli far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir loses Tuesday’s election.
Guards found it, and the prisoners were sent to solitary. Ben-Gvir posted the photo as a campaign ad: “With us, the celebration is over.”
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/196231
Indistinguishable from Goebbels or Jackson. Absolutely disgusting human being.
❗️Israeli occupation forces escalate attacks across southern Lebanon with airstrikes, artillery shelling, and military incursions
Israeli violations across southern Lebanon since early Sunday morning include heavy artillery shelling on the outskirts of Zawtar al-Sharqiya and Mayfadoun, as well as Baraachit, and airstrikes targeting Kfar Tebnit and Wadi al-Hujair, as reporred by Al-Manar correspondent Samer al-Haj Ali.
Israeli military vehicles were also reported moving through Haddatha, where a Merkava tank fired a shell at the town, while Israeli forces carried out machine-gun fire toward Haddatha and Aita al-Jabal. Two Merkava tanks were positioned on the outskirts of Aita al-Jabal as Israeli forces opened fire toward the town while residents were harvesting olives, with no injuries reported.
Further violations included Israeli military vehicle movements in Zawtar al-Sharqiya and a series of explosions carried out by Israeli forces in Majdal Zoun.
Images and video: https://t.me/thecradlemedia/69958?single
VIDEO | Footage shows a large-scale attack by Jewish settlers on Palestinian farmers in the village of Immatin, near the village of Tell, in the occupied West Bank. According to local sources, settlers assaulted the farmers and fired shots into the air, while a farm tractor overturned during the attack.
❗️Gaza Health Ministry: 1,551 Palestinians killed since October 2025 ‘ceasefire’
The Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza reported on the morning of 25 October that four Palestinians were killed and 14 others injured in Israeli attacks over the past 24 hours.
Since the so-called ceasefire took effect on 11 October 2025, 1,551 Palestinians have been killed and 5,573 injured, while the bodies of 842 Palestinians have been recovered.
The ministry also reported receiving the body of 33-year-old Ibrahim Amin Hassan Abu Gharaba, two weeks after he was abducted and killed while in Israeli custody.
❗️Riyadh airport to partially reopen two weeks after deadly Ansarallah missile strike
King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh will partially reopen on Sunday, two weeks after an Ansarallah missile strike on 10 October killed 13 people and injured more than 300, prompting the suspension of airport operations.
Terminal 1 will serve domestic flights, while Terminal 2 will handle international flights operated by national carriers, the airport said.
The reopening comes amid intensified retaliatory Ansarallah operations on Saudi Arabia as Saudi-backed Yemeni forces attempt to retake Ansarallah-held territory.
My money says the airport will not reopen for long.
🇮🇷🇵🇰| After Iran halted its LPG exports to Pakistan, Pakistan immediately reopened its key border crossings with Iran.
The bad news for Pakistan is that Iran has reportedly redirected its exports from Pakistan to Afghanistan for now.
Following US orders comes with repercussions. (Via Persian Girl on X)
@FotrosResistancee
Saudi, Egyptian stocks plummet as Yemen intensifies retaliatory strikes on KSA
Egypt is due to hold a parliamentary vote to authorize its armed forces to support the Saudi-led coalition in its brutal campaign
🇮🇷| After a long hiatus, Iran’s Parliament has reopened public sessions with the presence of Qalibaf.
@FotrosResistancee
#SouthernSyria : Daraa Municipality Employee Found Shot Dead in Western Daraa Countryside
The body of “Yassin Salem al-Hashish” from the Sunni community was found shot three times, at the junction of al-Ajami village in the western Daraa countryside, this morning, Sunday, October 25, 2026, according to local sources.
Yassin Salem al-Hashish was originally from the village of Zaizoun in the western Daraa countryside and worked as an employee at Daraa Municipality.
🇮🇷🇺🇸| Iran’s air defenses shot down a US Lucas OWA drone in the sky of Bandar Abbas this morning.
@FotrosResistancee
