The power brokers of the Yankee end of empire are the real leash holders at the end of the day. The question, as far as I can tell, is: what strategic calculus are they going to make if israel doesn’t want to bend the knee enough to match step with them?

They can threaten removal of support, or even carry it out in which case israel’s situation becomes even more precarious. If israel bends, they have to reign in their more rabid tendencies, which may require a forced change in the power status quo of israel. If israel refuses to bend, Trump of all people, world’s biggest narcissist, is not going to bow to their will. Especially not after the consequences of this war, which are forcing the empire to make concessions when it would normally go full speed ahead and not acquiesce a thing. I mean, if you look at the way the empire has acted in post-WWII, this seems unprecedented to me, the level of successful military resistance and the deal being pushed on it.

I don’t want to be overly optimistic, but to me it looks like Iran is essentially putting the US in a position where it has to choose: either force israel to be less rabid, or cut it loose. Either way is a loss for US dominance in the region and gives Iran, and the axis of resistance as a whole, more breathing room to build back its strength as a force of anti-imperialist in the world. Meanwhile, the US doesn’t seem to have the military power in this case to force a different outcome. Every time they push, Iran wrecks their military forces in the region all the more, sending a clear message that comprador states are taking on risk to be hosting the empire and sending a message to the empire that its weapons (some of which are hard to replace) can be destroyed when they hang out there.

So while I’m not exactly confident in israel’s ability to stop violating ceasefires, I am more confident in the idea that the narcissist in chief is not going to be pleased if the empire tries to make a strategic retreat and their rabid dog makes a fool of them and their negotiation efforts.

That said, it’s possible that the US is only negotiating for show while it plans more attacks, but Iran is of course going to be well aware of that possibility and make them hurt again if they do. And the capitalists looking at oil and markets and so on are going to be none too happy if this keeps going on and keeps stressing oil supplies to their limits.