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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • Thanks, that was a much more nuanced take that I have a much easier time agreeing with :)

    I think the population problem has some in common with food distribution: There’s enough food in the world, it’s just distributed in such a way that some places have obesity as a societal-level issue, while other places people are dying of malnourishment.

    Similarly, the global population is increasing, however it’s increasing far more rapidly that sustainable in some places, while declining more rapidly than sustainable in others.

    There’s only so much you can do by redistributing wealth in a better way (which I think we should, regardless). It doesn’t help to tax the rich if there isn’t any manpower you can buy with that tax income to actually do the work that needs doing. I think that’s the scary part about a rapid population decline: We’re heading towards a situation (in some places) where the ratio of capable workers to people needing care approaches 2:1, which means a far larger fraction of the population will need to spend their entire working career as direct care providers than is currently the case. You can’t really alleviate a manpower shortage with just money.


  • It’s a dog whistle every time.

    Population decline isn’t inherently a problem (unless you’re a racist worried about “your people” losing power). Too rapid population decline is a big problem. We’re already seeing the effects: When the sum of birth rates and working-age immigration fall fast enough, the ratio of working-age people to care-needing people also falls. I don’t think I need to explain why it’s a problem that every able-bodied working age adult will be responsible (directly or indirectly) for taking care of more people. It puts more pressure on everyone, and impacts societies ability to care for those in need of it.

    A controlled, slow, population decline would probably just be a good thing at this point. However, that’s not what prognoses are pointing towards, and that’s why (non-racist) people are worried.












  • thebestaquaman@lemmy.worldtoTechnology@lemmy.world•LLMs are real, "AI" is fake
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    1 month ago

    So much this. They’ve basically figured out that if they burn enough money, they get the equivalent of billions of meth-charged monkeys on typewriters.

    Anything with a security hole (so… basically everything) will eventually be broken into if you throw a data center worth of computational power at trying every conceivable hack. That’s basically what they were doing here. The only mildly impressive part about it is the amount of resources they’re willing to throw at this.




  • I’ve been a bit busy at work, but I’ll deliver on my promise of numbers :D

    I’ve used the Darcy-Weisbach equation for the pressure drop / flow rate relationship, and assumed

    • We have laminar flow in the hose (which is reasonable)
    • You’re delivering water at 1 bar (can’t go below that without suction on the receiving side)
    • Viscosity of water: 1.0518 mPa s
    • Viscosity of air: 18.03 micro Pa s
    • Your hose is indestructible, and can therefore tolerate arbitrarily large pressures.
    • You have the pump ready at day 0, and the hose is already stretched out at day 0.

    The biggest pumps I could find (1, 2, 3) can deliver water at 400 MPa, with pretty high flow rates (much larger than what we can support with our hose). We’re talking about pumps that draw on the order of 1 MW of power.

    We start pumping water into the air-filled hose at 4 000 bar on day 0.

    After two days, the water front has moved about 1000 km along the hose. Flow rate is at about 1.2 L/s, and pressure at the water front is at a solid 450 bar. This is looking good.

    After one week, the water front has moved about 2000 km along the hose. Flow rate is now at about 0.6 L/s, and pressure at the water front has fallen to 200 bar. You begin to worry.

    After two weeks, the water front is now at 3100 km. Flow rate has further fallen to 0.4 L/s, and pressure is at 150 bar. The pressure on you to deliver is substantially higher.

    After three weeks, water has been pumped 3900 km, and is moving at a speed of 1.15 m/s. Pressure at the water front is around 100 bar. The guys that loaned you money for the massive pump and indestructible hose are lurking around your house.

    About 100 days later, the first water starts flowing out of the hose in LA at a flow rate of about 0.5 L/s. It would take you about half an hour to fill the 1000 L tank at this rate. Too bad the tank was impounded by the guys that loaned you the pump and indestructible hose. You have gone into hiding.