The brunt of US tariffs — 96% — have been paid by US buyers, research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank, found, while about 4% of the tariff burden was paid by foreign exporters.

“American importers and consumers bear nearly all the cost,” the researchers said of the tariffs. The study, published Monday, said that the $200 billion increase in customs revenue that the US government raised in 2025 was a “tax paid almost entirely by Americans.”

The research contradicts Trump’s messaging that tariff costs would not be paid by Americans, but by other countries and overseas exporters. The president’s aggressive tariff policy launched last year placed additional duties on dozens of trade partners, including China, India, and the European Union.