There are 22,000 ICE agents, and there were 94,000 polling stations in the 2022 midterms. (Down from 200,000 in 2018 but that’s another whole mess) so at this rate they will have exactly ONE agent in every 4th polling station or so.
While I agree about the “everything is rigged already” problem, the cold hard fact is that 80% of the election is considered to be decided before the first vote is ever cast, and I think Blackmist knows that, and discussing the electoral college suggests that … yeah, kinda. Which makes your otherwise helpful admonishment harmful too, because it doesn’t dissuade them of that view. In fact, a cynical reading of what you said is, “we know that, but you’re not supposed to say it out loud.”
What I’d recommend instead is pointing out that the people who assume 80% of the vote is irrelevant are failing to account for political sea change events on a large scale. They’re rare. Very rare, actually. But they happen and we’re kinda in one. So while 80% of the vote is already a given in most elections, it’s not a given in this one.
I upvoted Blackmist for his comment about ICE only needing to hit a minority of polling places to create fear, because that’s true. And you as well because you’re right that a message of hopelessness is harmful. I hope you both come away ready to defend the idea that this is an election that can actually erase and rewrite the status quo in America. The focus in the primary season needs to be getting strong candidates and flushing some weak-ass Dems, and then fighting like hell to get as many Dems elected as possible to avoid squandering people’s sheer outrage at the violence, lawlessness, and nothing short of Nazi saluting fascism in this country.
The big reason why the electoral college has “rigged things” (aside from Jefferson fucking things up, but that’s an argument for another time) is that the vote of so many has been so predictable. They only really worry about the places the outcome is likely to be volatile. Except in this election people are so pissed off that the outcome of the whole country is at least fuzzy, or can be if we work to make it that way. If they think they’re gonna goround Texas, they need to send people down there to intimidate. But they don’t. They might. In fact they’re likely to.
Everything’s in play if we make it all be in play. That’s on us, so let’s make it so sending goons to a few places won’t suppress the nation’s will. This isn’t even a presidential election, so the electoral college isn’t a factor. We can fix some of this shit right now.
Please help us do that! I’m treating this election like our lives depend on it, because they do.
There are 22,000 ICE agents, and there were 94,000 polling stations in the 2022 midterms. (Down from 200,000 in 2018 but that’s another whole mess) so at this rate they will have exactly ONE agent in every 4th polling station or so.
We can take 'em.
They only need to put them in minority areas of marginal states.
The rest of it is rigged already.
There are few more harmful things we can say to each other right now than the implication that everything is rigged and people’s votes don’t matter.
The states are huge, they are hard to rig, or we wouldn’t have seen the successes we have already.
While I agree about the “everything is rigged already” problem, the cold hard fact is that 80% of the election is considered to be decided before the first vote is ever cast, and I think Blackmist knows that, and discussing the electoral college suggests that … yeah, kinda. Which makes your otherwise helpful admonishment harmful too, because it doesn’t dissuade them of that view. In fact, a cynical reading of what you said is, “we know that, but you’re not supposed to say it out loud.”
What I’d recommend instead is pointing out that the people who assume 80% of the vote is irrelevant are failing to account for political sea change events on a large scale. They’re rare. Very rare, actually. But they happen and we’re kinda in one. So while 80% of the vote is already a given in most elections, it’s not a given in this one.
I upvoted Blackmist for his comment about ICE only needing to hit a minority of polling places to create fear, because that’s true. And you as well because you’re right that a message of hopelessness is harmful. I hope you both come away ready to defend the idea that this is an election that can actually erase and rewrite the status quo in America. The focus in the primary season needs to be getting strong candidates and flushing some weak-ass Dems, and then fighting like hell to get as many Dems elected as possible to avoid squandering people’s sheer outrage at the violence, lawlessness, and nothing short of Nazi saluting fascism in this country.
The electoral college is the rigging. The voting isn’t rigged. The outcome is.
They don’t care about Minoritytown, Alabama. That state goes red no matter what.
Similarly, they’re not going to intimidate all of Maryland. That is already going blue. It would be a waste of time to try.
Your votes in these areas are counted, but they don’t change the outcome. The popular vote is meaningless.
The big reason why the electoral college has “rigged things” (aside from Jefferson fucking things up, but that’s an argument for another time) is that the vote of so many has been so predictable. They only really worry about the places the outcome is likely to be volatile. Except in this election people are so pissed off that the outcome of the whole country is at least fuzzy, or can be if we work to make it that way. If they think they’re gonna goround Texas, they need to send people down there to intimidate. But they don’t. They might. In fact they’re likely to.
Everything’s in play if we make it all be in play. That’s on us, so let’s make it so sending goons to a few places won’t suppress the nation’s will. This isn’t even a presidential election, so the electoral college isn’t a factor. We can fix some of this shit right now.
Please help us do that! I’m treating this election like our lives depend on it, because they do.
I don’t subscribe to doomerism and I resent those who do.
how many predominantly Latino and black areas?
We can take 'em.
They probably won’t send them to the safe republican seats.