• queermunist she/her@lemmy.ml
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    18 days ago

    This year.

    Incumbency is only protective when economic conditions are stable. When times are tough, like they are now for most people who aren’t involved in constructing data centers, incumbents get voted out. These things go in cycles.

    There’s basically no way to know what economic conditions will be by 2028, but odds are they’ll be fine. The economy has long periods of stability with only short periods of crisis, after all, so on average incumbents have an advantage.

    And that assumes the Party doesn’t force her down voters’ throats anyway. They like doing that shit too.