The loss condition of this war for russia is not really russia collapsing, I don’t think China would let that happen. What will happen is that “russia” will basically become a series of Chinese owned brands… and in this sense yes I think China will grasp an immense amount of power from russia and a lot of it might not be that obvious on paper but if it hasn’t already effectively happened it is certainly going to.
China didn’t invade Ukraine with a physical land army though, so I don’t think things will be worse if China gets more control over russia. I am not saying there won’t be problems with that, I am sure it keeps US Warhawks obsessed with China up at night, but russia is so totaled, their military so broken, and their military technology so hobbled by years of war sanctions I don’t think China gaining effective control over their entire economy bit by bit will make China that much more militarily powerful. China will get a lot out of russia… once they put in the investment to fix the landscape Putin/russia trashed.
Oh absolutely - I’m not saying that the Russian Federation would balkanise and cease to be; but more pointing out that the land dispute between China and Russia, which began in the 60s, was only somewhat recently settled (late 00s from memory) - and I wouldn’t put it past China to press the advantage as a first step towards ultimately subsuming Russia into a vassal state through superior economic power.
There are many economic (mineral resources), political (expansionism), and military (increased presence in the Sea of Japan) reasons that China may want to annex some land from Eastern Russia as a concession for ongoing economic, political or military support to Russia.
The loss condition of this war for russia is not really russia collapsing, I don’t think China would let that happen. What will happen is that “russia” will basically become a series of Chinese owned brands… and in this sense yes I think China will grasp an immense amount of power from russia and a lot of it might not be that obvious on paper but if it hasn’t already effectively happened it is certainly going to.
China didn’t invade Ukraine with a physical land army though, so I don’t think things will be worse if China gets more control over russia. I am not saying there won’t be problems with that, I am sure it keeps US Warhawks obsessed with China up at night, but russia is so totaled, their military so broken, and their military technology so hobbled by years of war sanctions I don’t think China gaining effective control over their entire economy bit by bit will make China that much more militarily powerful. China will get a lot out of russia… once they put in the investment to fix the landscape Putin/russia trashed.
Oh absolutely - I’m not saying that the Russian Federation would balkanise and cease to be; but more pointing out that the land dispute between China and Russia, which began in the 60s, was only somewhat recently settled (late 00s from memory) - and I wouldn’t put it past China to press the advantage as a first step towards ultimately subsuming Russia into a vassal state through superior economic power.
There are many economic (mineral resources), political (expansionism), and military (increased presence in the Sea of Japan) reasons that China may want to annex some land from Eastern Russia as a concession for ongoing economic, political or military support to Russia.