It is sad to hear of their defeat.

The business of revolution is such: for a revolution to win, it must grow and spread decisively and fast. A revolutionary drops out of the calculation after being imprisoned. Since revolutionaries typically cannot detain people, a riot cop will return next day - unless disarmed and put in hospital condition. Thus, sadly, a revolution cannot afford to lose mass engagements and lose many people as prisoners. If it is opposed, it needs to be decisively violent. :( If it’s not being opposed, it can be peaceful. To prevail, revolutionaries need an big numeric advantage, coordination (know where to strike) and rapid action (don’t give a chance of defending). If opposed, they need weapons.

If a state manages to mobilize armed agencies to supress a revolution, military units must be either persuaded to defect (approach them with beer), bribed to switch sides (approach them with money), or defeated. Option 3 is the hardest, only possible if the population is well armed and organized.

Random samples:

• in 1936 in parts of Spain, population was highly organized and dual power structures prepared for rebellion: they overcame military units and took their weapons in some regions, but not others, civil war followed

• in 1991 in the USSR, dual power structures were already well developed and democracy was expected - the military delayed with implementing orders, negotiated about whose orders to implement and essentially defected to the side of the population

• in 2010 during the Arab Spring, protest expanded so fast in several countries that goverment could not mobilize forces to supress it

• in 2011 in Syria, protest was suppressed with violence in central areas, but protesters overcame government in less central areas, civil war followed

• in 2014 in Ukraine, government was divided (president vs. parliament) and the military refused to choose a side, after which protesters overwhelmed riot police and the president fled

• in 2025 in Nepal, protest expanded so quickly that protesters overcame civilian branches of government, drove ministers into emigration and torched the parliament, before the military could choose a side

• in 2026 in Iran, protest grew too slowly, government was very prepared for repressions, and had enough time to mobilize armed supression and used heavy violence, prevailing :(

We murdered all the protesters, so go back to your homes. It’s fine now. All fine. don’t worry