cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/46109271

• Africa’s trade deficit with China widened 64.5% to $102 billion in 2025
• Chinese exports to Africa surged 25.8%, while imports rose modestly
• Structural trade imbalances persist despite China’s broad tariff cuts
• African producers do not control a significant portion of Africa’s exports but by Chinese-owned firms operating within the continent
• Hence, China’s expanding duty-free access to imports from African countries aims at securing advantages for Chinese investors to import raw materials from Africa rather than opening China’s market to Africa

…

Total trade between China and Africa hit a record $348.05 billion, a 17.7% increase over 2024.

The sharp rise in Africa’s trade deficit with China comes as Beijing seeks to boost exports to overseas markets after losing market share in the United States following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports. However, that shift does not fully explain the widening deficit, which reflects long-standing structural imbalances in bilateral trade.

China’s imports from Africa are dominated by raw materials such as crude oil, copper, cobalt and iron ore. By contrast, its exports to the continent consist mainly of higher-value manufactured goods, including machinery, electronics and green technologies.

…

An analysis last Sepember warned that heavy reliance on Chinese imports and weak global value chain linkages are stalling Africa’s industrialisation:

… One key indicator is Africa’s pattern of participation in global value chains (GVCs). The UNCTAD-Eora GVC Database indicates that most African countries are more involved in forward GVCs (exporting raw materials and intermediates) than in backward GVCs (importing inputs for local processing and re-export). This leaves them vulnerable to commodity price volatility and external shocks, while limiting opportunities for industrial upgrading. In contrast, East Asian countries, particularly China, are more active in backward linkages. They import large volumes of raw materials and intermediates to process for export, far outweighing their exports of unprocessed inputs.

Africa also faces a persistent trade deficit, an indication that its trade openness is skewed toward imports. For instance, in 2024, the continent’s trade-to-GDP ratio (44%) was ten percentage points higher than China’s, yet it posted a trade deficit of roughly US$99 billion while China recorded a surplus close to US$1 trillion …

China has been the major contributor to Africa’s trade imbalance for the past decade (Figure 2). In 2024, Africa–China trade reached US$296 billion, constituting 22% of Africa’s total trade …

Another challenge in Africa-China trade is that the domestic producers do not control a significant portion of Africa’s exports, but by Chinese-owned firms operating within the continent. The majority of earnings ultimately flow back to these foreign investors …

Hence, China’s recent offer of duty-free access to imports from 53 African countries is primarily aimed at securing advantages for Chinese investors to import raw materials from Africa, rather than genuinely opening its domestic markets to African producers …

Ultimately, the onus is on African governments to turn trade openness into an engine for industrial growth through a multi-pronged strategy to foster industrialisation and a more balanced trade structure …

Web archive link