It won’t happen. NATO will dissolve before it decides to stop encroaching.
Yeah but it will be replaced by a myriad of protection rackets with the us and most of russia’s closest neighbors are NAFO-freaks who would sell their own grandma for the boot.
The break up of NATO is looking like the most likely possibility to me right now.
Agreed. The only real questions I have are when and what shape that will take.
That’s tricky to predict, my expectation is that it’s going to be driven by economics. Both the US and the EU are teetering on the brink now. If there’s going to be an economic crash, then it’s going to be every man for himself at that point. The US is also desperately trying to make some deal with Russia, so if they manage to do it and freeze the Europeans out, that could also be the catalyst. And then we have nationalist parties in all the major EU countries becoming dominant. If AfD gets into power in Germany or RN in France, they could pull out of NATO and the EU. And Americans might decide NATO isn’t really useful to them anymore as well. Although, if they do attack Iran, they might try to squeeze every last drop out of NATO and force Europeans to participate.
Honestly, when you consider that a major objective of instigating the Ukraine-Russia war was to shorten the US’s leash over its European vassals, desperation to maintain NATO as a bloc makes more sense when it comes to attacking Iran. We all know Iran has been in the US-Zionist scope for the past few decades, but it’s also always been understood that a direct confrontation with Iran would be utterly disastrous.
exactly
The only way I can think of achieving real security guarantees is if there’s heavy arms in South Americas keeping US in check.
Just watched a channel of another one “greatest mind in politics” (sarcastincton or smth like that) and damn that was a mistake. Dude is a fucking NATO bootlicker, with nationalist Poles spewing “soviet occupation” and Russophobic jokes
Damn i want to break someone’s ankles, someone preferably from Poland
Wait, so Bill Clinton’s promise isn’t good enough for Russia any more? I can’t believe they no longer take a US president at their word.
And in response the US will have its proxies Britain, France, etc step up a naval blockade of Russian oil and cargo hoping to break Russia’s will and economy and force them to accept unfavorable terms.
I don’t think the US has the resources to do that. Remember, Russia is not a threat to the US in practice, and now that it’s capitalists, it’s not an ideological opposition either. It’s just another capitalist country they can do business with. The US sees China as the real threat, and in that context Europe is just a distraction and a drain on the resources. That’s why the US is negotiating with Russia in the first place right now. They want an off ramp from their failed proxy war.
The original goal was for Ukraine hold out long enough for the west to collapse Russian economy via sanctions, and by cutting Russia out of the world trade. Then the west would’ve rushed in to plunder the resources, cut China off from energy and food supplies, and then start surrounding it militarily from the west. Today, it’s obvious that none of that is going to happen, and Europe lost its value to the US in the process. What the US wants to ensure now is that Europe will be broken and it doesn’t form an economic alliance with the east. It’s a scorched earth strategy.
Finally, it’s worth noting that even if the US tried to do the things you say, China is Russia’s main oil importer now. And China absolutely cannot afford to let Russia lose the war for all the reasons stated above. So, if there’s going to be an economic war of attrition, it’s going to be between the US and China with Europe and Russia being their respective proxies. The US will lose this war because China’s productive economy is far superior. China can keep Russia afloat indefinitely, but the US cannot do the same for Europe. And of course, Russia’s own economy isn’t anything to scoff at either. In terms of industrial capacity it’s comparable to the US, and Russia has all the resources it needs domestically. They just have to continue developing their own industry.
Russia is national capitalists. The USA is international capitalists. That makes their ideology differ enough because Russian companies win when American capitalism loses and vice versa. Imo
The point is that it’s not an ideological alternative to the US capitalism the way USSR was or China is today. Like sure Russia and the US might have different goals and interests, but the US can find common ground with Russia as they do with other capitalist states. What makes China dangerous to the US is that it promotes a completely different model of development from their own.
It is said that the contradictions between capitalism and socialism are stronger than the contradictions among the capitalist countries. Theoretically, of course, that is true. It is not only true now, today; it was true before the Second World War. And it was more or less realized by the leaders of the capitalist countries. Yet the Second World War began not as a war with the U.S.S.R., but as a war between capitalist countries. Why? Firstly, because war with the U.S.S.R., as a socialist land, is more dangerous to capitalism than war between capitalist countries; for whereas war between capitalist countries puts in question only the supremacy of certain capitalist countries over others, war with the U.S.S.R. must certainly put in question the existence of capitalism itself. Secondly, because the capitalists, although they clamour, for “propaganda” purposes, about the aggressiveness of the Soviet Union, do not themselves believe that it is aggressive, because they are aware of the Soviet Union’s peaceful policy and know that it will not itself attack capitalist countries.
[…] Consequently, the struggle of the capitalist countries for markets and their desire to crush their competitors proved in practice to be stronger than the contradictions between the capitalist camp and the socialist camp.
Sure, but that doesn’t contradict what I said. Stalin is talking about a situation where there are underlying reasons for conflict between capitalist countries. I’m saying such reasons simply do not exist between Russia and the US. Russia is a regional power, and it doesn’t directly encroach on US interests.
The reason is the same as always, extraction of natural resources and cheap labour from Russia.
Europe will never side with Russia in this conflict, but should the US attack China, Europe might side with China in hopes of regaining independence from the US.
[…] when Hitler Germany declared war on the Soviet Union, the Anglo-French-American bloc, far from joining with Hitler Germany, was compelled to enter into a coalition with the U.S.S.R. against Hitler Germany.
The US will be doing that in their own hemisphere, because the geography makes it pretty much impossible for the US to contest Russia. That much should be obvious. In fact, the policy papers that were published last year and this year spell this out in black and white:
- https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf
- https://media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/2003864773/-1/-1/0/2026-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY.PDF
Europe in its current state is subservient to the US, but if you look at the politics in Europe, it’s pretty clear that liberal regimes aren’t going to last long. Once it becomes clear the war is lost, there’s going to be a huge political upheaval. My expectation is that the most likely scenario is that nationalist parties get into power in France and Germany, and that’s going to be the end of the EU. It’s entirely possible that countries like Hungary and Slovakia actually join BRICS as well.
Europe trying to normalize relations with China is a possibility, but so far there’s little sign that there is any serious effort in that direction.
True, but the aspiration of any national bourgeoisie is to become an international bourgeoisie.
To that end all the Western bourgeoisie needed to do was let their Russian counterparts in on the good times; which didn’t happen and we’re living through the consequences.
The smartest thing for them to do now is reverse course and welcome Russia into the fold as they should’ve done in the 90s instead of treating the country like another resource colony.
Putin actually aspired for Russia to join NATO decades ago. People forget that Russia is anti-imperialist because of circumstance, not because of state ideology.
Exactly. I have no doubts that even now if invited to join the Western World Order they’d jump at the chance.
Either that or they exploit the decline of the West to try and build their own capitalist world order.
